081900
With all the work going towards the new charting software, its been hard to find time to update this page. To make it up to all of you who have waited patiently, here's a showcase that will give you some interesting information you can actually use in the next 5-6 months. Here's a daily S&P chart:
This chart shows the first half of the year, and has some very useful indicators applied to it. Lets start with the purple line. This is a forecast of what the S&P should do for the rest of the year. You can see that, while not perfect, it gives a very good roadmap of what to expect. It caught the late February bottom, warned of the April drop, and gave a great sell indication at the recent July top. Like the rest of our forecasts, this can and does invert, but the turning points are almost never wrong. Note that this forecast was created back in 1999.
The next indicator is a turning point forecaster at the top of the screen, shown in blue. Like other indicators such as Fibonacci time projections, this is designed to predict future turning points. This line was generated early in the year, so all the points that have red trendlines dropping down are out of sample. You can see that this tool called some interesting turns in the market.
Now for the interesting part. These two tools are both very powerful, but they are based on different things which make them uncorrelated. If you look at what they are forecasting for the future, you'll see that they are predicting the exact same thing for the last three months of the year. I always pay attention when something like this pops up, because it creates a great setup for timing indicators like Exhaustion Bars and MA_Momentum.
The October 3rd point is the first area to watch, so we still have a ways to go before any of this should come into play. I wouldn't base trading decisions on this analysis alone, but would use it as a general guide. So if we're sitting at October 3 with momentum divergence (like we had recently for the July top), an Exhaustion Bar, and have some Fibonacci relationship or price pattern present, then its probably a really good time to take a trade or buy some options.